China–U.S. Relations Under Tariff Shocks: A Political and Geopolitical Perspective

Abstract: The global tariffs introduced by Trump face legal challenges in the short term. However, even if these challenges succeed, Trump is likely to pivot to industry-specific tariffs with a stronger legal foundation. Trump's domestic political approval has declined, and his strategy is shifting from "one against many" to focusing on China. He is attempting to prioritize forming agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and the UK in the Indo-Pacific region to create a strategic blockade against China. Fundamentally, the U.S. tariff policy aims to restore military and technological hegemony, which underpins its economic dominance. Therefore, industry tariffs are focused on sectors like steel, aluminum, chips, rare earths, new energy, and medical industries. In the future, the U.S. may continue to exert geopolitical pressure on China, necessitating adjustments in China's negotiation strategy to actively seek communication channels while being prepared for confrontation. Concurrently, China should enhance diplomatic relations with neighboring countries and provide relief support to businesses affected by these challenges.